2000 points from 6,000 points to see the location is very low, but 1000 is still the high point of view 2000, this is the embarrassment of the current stock market.
A lot of people complain that the focal sub-prime crisis in the United States, the U.S. stock market only fell 30%, while China's stock market has dropped more than 60%, therefore, that the Chinese stock market had fallen too far. But if we compare this to know where the problem lies: the U.S. stock market has created the current four-year low point of the China's stock market than the lowest point in 2005 is also twice as high. If China's stock market also hit four-year low, then, means that fell below the 1000!
Some people said that because the impact of IPOs on the index, now The index has not comparable with previous index, I calculated that, excluding the factors of new shares, and now the equivalent of 2,000 points at around 1,700 in 2005. Even the 1700 points from 1000 is still very far away, so we feel some incredible, such a possibility? now have a very cheap price, the ratio is at the level of 1000 points, can still fall further?
stock market is a barometer of the economy,UGG boots clearance, stock prices reflect future earnings expectations. Ask: 2008 2009, economic performance will be better than 2005? If in October 2007 asked this question, the answer may not be sure, today there is no answer to this question should be controversy. In the occasion of the international financial crisis intensified, foreign demand slowdown is a foregone conclusion, the domestic real estate inflection point, the investment slowdown should become a reality can not be reproduced In 2009 the GDP grew more than 10%. In the context of a 10% growth in 2005, appeared in 1000 position, and in 2009 the situation much worse than in 2005, what reason is there does not appear that 1000 points in 2009 (according to comparable prices, 1000 2005, equivalent to about 1300 now) do?
although according to estimates the level of value, the current stock market is already very cheap,UGG boots, but now the valuation is based on the first half of 2007 or 2008, the profit calculation. Who can say that listed companies in 2009 still have the level of 2007 earnings? from the current situation Look, steel,Bailey UGG boots, home appliances, building materials, automobiles, metals, real estate and other industries will be profitable in 2009 drastic decline.
Therefore, I believe that another year's time, we look back, 2000 point is high and not given the status.
this round of the start time of the stock market should start from the end of October 2006, ICBC listing (time is October 26, 2006) the stock market opened higher after the prelude, when the index is 1800 points, if the index excluding the impact of IPO, the current 2,000 points and 1,800 points were exactly the same level. That is, in October 2006 to October 2008, at 2 years where the starting point of China's stock market from 1800 back to 1800 points, 1800 points to 6100 points in between the left and back. Now the index although the index had not changed, but the market has given rise to tremendous changes wealth of experience of the people the cycle of expansion and shrinkage, investor psychology changed from excitement sadness, expected by the market optimistic about the future into a negative. even though we all know that 66% of the decline is difficult to accept investors. When the stock market back to the starting point, I want to say is: If you do not want the stock market crash, the only way to do is to prevent the stock market soared. If the stock market in 2007 but rose to 3000 points or 4000 points, did not rise to 5,000 points or more, we would not have the current passive investors not only to keep in mind, but also regulators,UGG bailey button, policy makers need to keep in mind.
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